Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
