Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
